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Scientists can ‘predict if you will quit smoking’ by asking just two questions

Smoking is one of the leading causes of death worldwide, yet smokers struggle to give up the dangerous habit. Therefore, scientists designed a simple test to “predict if you’ll manage to quit smoking” successfully.

Smoking is so addictive that people with chronic illnesses continue to indulge in it even when their health is at stake. The data used in the study below suggests that 15 and 60% of people who smoked before they were diagnosed with cancer couldn’t quit after diagnosis.

Cigarette Butt Stubbed Out
Credit: Peter Dazeley | Getty Images

Two questions ‘predict if you will manage to quit smoking’

Researchers at the Norwegian Science and Technology University wanted to gain more insight into smoking addiction among cancer patients as the disease and the habit go hand-in-hand.

The level of addiction to smoking and their ability to quit successfully was also important to predict patients’ chances of surviving.

Unlike several existing tests to asses smoking risk which are extensive, the new test is short and simplified. It’s called the Heaviness of Smoking Index (HSI) and comprises two questions.

  • How many cigarettes do you smoke per day?
  • How soon after you wake up do you smoke your first cigarette?

Although the above test isn’t 100% accurate, the “results in predicting cigarette addiction were equally good for both the full and the simplified tests.”

What do the test results mean?

The responses to the two questions are scored to predict the possibility of quitting smoking among the test takers.

The options for the questions include:

1. On the days that you smoke, how soon after you wake up do you have your first cigarette?

A. Within 5 minutes (3 points)
B. 6- 30 minutes (2 points)
C. 31-60 minutes (1 point)
D. After 60 minutes (0 points)

2. How many cigarettes do you typically smoke per day?

A. 10 or fewer (0 points)
B. 11-20 (1 point)
C. 21-30 (2 points)
D. 31 or more (3 points)

If your total score is between 0 and 2, you’re low on smoking addiction, while it’s moderate for a score of 3 to 4. Anywhere between 5 and 6 implies high addiction, which means the chances of quitting successfully are less likely.

Although giving up smoking is hard, which I can say from my experience, there are evidence-based strategies that increase your chances.

The Society For The Study of Addiction says the below methods are most effective when combined with counseling.

  • Varenicline  is a prescription drug sold by brands Chantix and Champix and others.
  • Cytisine is a plant-based compound available in the UK under prescription and over-the-counter drugs in Canada. Its also available throughout central and eastern Europe.
  • Nicotine e-cigarettes  also known as vapes come in different sizes and shapes. Even though the cigarette alternative may be effective in helping one quit smoking, it can still cause nicotine addiction.