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AI could cause a Terminator-style extinction according to scientists, although the odds are slim Credits: Social Media
By Tom Llewellyn

AI could cause a Terminator-style extinction according to scientists, although the odds are slim

By Tom Llewellyn

An enormous survey has found the majority of researchers agree there is a roughly 5% chance AI could cause human extinction.

Hollywood might have been to blame for the historic panic around Artificial Intelligence leading to human extinction, but a huge survey of AI experts and researchers has found even the best and brightest are worried about our species fate.

A Look At China Executive Leadership Academy Pudong (CELAP)
SHANGHAI, CHINA – JUNE 18: Cutting edge applications of Artificial Intelligence are seen on display at the Artificial Intelligence Pavilion of Zhangjiang Future Park during a state organized media tour on June 18, 2021 in Shanghai, China. (Photo by Andrea Verdelli/Getty Images)

Scientists say theres a 5% chance of AI wiping out humanity

In the largest survey of its kind, the majority of scientists specializing in AI research agreed the risk of Artificial Intelligence destroying humanity was around 5%… Yay?

More than 2,700 researchers, who had either published reports in major AI research publications or recently spoken at AI technology-focused conferences, were asked for their predictions about the pace of AI progress.

Worryingly, around 57% considered there to be a roughly 5% chance that AI leads to extremely bad outcomes such as human extinction.

While the optimistic scenarios reflect AIs potential to revolutionize various aspects of work and life, the pessimistic predictions  particularly those involving extinction-level risks  serve as a stark reminder of the high stakes involved in AI development and deployment.

The good news is that there is still widespread disagreement within the scientific and political community that AI could lead to such a destructive result. After all, predictors for this type of doomsday scenario change as quickly as peoples opinions, especially with the ebbs and flows of the news cycle.

In fact, the proportion of people who put at least a 10% chance on extremely bad outcomes like extinction has dropped significantly since 2022, suggesting the general panic surrounding AI potential may have subsided over the past 14 months.

Katja Grace of Californias Machine Intelligence Research Institute explained:

Its an important signal that most AI researchers dont find it strongly implausible that advanced AI destroys humanity. I think this general belief in a non-minuscule risk is much more telling than the exact percentage risk.

BRITAIN-ART-TECHNOLOGY-AI-BARBICAN
An AI robot with a humanistic face, entitled Alter 3: Offloaded Agency, is pictured during a photocall to promote the forthcoming exhibition entitled “AI: More than Human”, at the Barbican Centre in London on May 15, 2019. – Managing the health of the planet, fighting against discrimination, innovating in the arts: the fields in which artificial intelligence (AI) can help humanity are innumerable, as an exhibition in London attempts to show. Entitled “AI: More than Human”, the exhibition brings together more than 200 installations, projects by artists and scientists from around the world. – RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY MENTION OF THE ARTIST UPON PUBLICATION – TO ILLUSTRATE THE EVENT AS SPECIFIED IN THE CAPTION (Photo by Ben STANSALL / AFP) / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY MENTION OF THE ARTIST UPON PUBLICATION – TO ILLUSTRATE THE EVENT AS SPECIFIED IN THE CAPTION / RESTRICTED TO EDITORIAL USE – MANDATORY MENTION OF THE ARTIST UPON PUBLICATION – TO ILLUSTRATE THE EVENT AS SPECIFIED IN THE CAPTION (Photo by BEN STANSALL/AFP via Getty Images)

What will AI achieve within the next 10 years?

The survey also asked the AI researchers what they thought Artificial Intelligence would achieve within the next 10 years, considering the pace of advancement appears to be gaining speed with every passing week.

They found by the year 2028, there is at least a 50% chance that AI will be able to:

  • Create a song indistinguishable from a new song by popular musicians
  • Autonomously download information and self-upgrade large language models like ChatGPT
  • Create a legitimate payment processing website from scratch

While the range of views on how long it will take for milestones to be feasible can be broad, this years survey saw a general shift towards earlier expectations.

This suggests AI experts expect the entire industry to develop at faster rates, and Artificial Intelligence will reach landmark moments much sooner than many people realize.

SWITZERLAND-SCIENCE-COMPUTERS-ITU-AI
A visitor takes a picture of humanoid AI robot “Ameca” at the booth of Engineered Arts company during the world’s largest gathering of humanoid AI Robots as part of International Telecommunication Union (ITU) AI for Good Global Summit in Geneva, on July 5, 2023. The United Nations is convening this week a global gathering to try to map out the frontiers of artificial intelligence and to harness its potential for empowering humanity, hoping to lay out a clear blueprint on the way forward for handling AI, as development of the technology races ahead the capacity to set its boundaries. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)

The Focus will be here covering the latest developments in Artificial Intelligence technology as they are revealed in 2024, so keep checking back in to stay up to date with all things AI.